Picture Dolly Parton seated with a guitar in her lap, working through another song. Not the rhinestone-and-sequins Dolly of the concert stage—the working songwriter Dolly. Small recorder at her side, and another one of her three thousand songs taking shape.
Three thousand. Most of them songs you’ve never heard, and probably never will.
And yet, when you step back and look at everything she built—the catalog, the career, the lasting cultural presence—you see those obscure tracks aren’t leftovers. They’re the engine that built it all.
We see Dolly the singer, performer, and movie star; yet how did Dolly describe herself? “I’ve always prided myself as a songwriter more than anything else.” Dolly didn’t write three thousand songs because she knew which ones would become classics. She wrote them because writing was what she did. Each new song simply expanded the surface area where something remarkable could happen. And the more she wrote, the more places lightning had a chance to strike.
Luck Surface Area, Before it Had a Name
In a 1992 interview with Oprah, Dolly put it this way:
“I see so many people that have twice the talent that I have, they write better songs, they sing better, and I think there’s a certain element of luck in that. I was always grateful and humble, but I always have worked very hard, too.”
Dolly rarely framed luck as pure randomness. To her it sat alongside effort, timing, faith, and a refusal to take success for granted. That is as good a description of the concept of “luck surface area” as you’ll find: the growing number of places you’ve given good things a chance to find you. Not the random kind of luck, but the kind you build deliberately, one piece at a time.
Jason Roberts coined the phrase in 2010, and puts it this way:
“The serendipity that finds you – your “Luck Surface Area” – is proportional to how deeply you pursue something you’re passionate about, multiplied by how many people you effectively share it with. Passion creates valuable expertise. When people discover it, they often act in ways you never predicted: hiring you, partnering with you, investing in you. You can directly control how much luck you receive.”
Dolly never used the term, but she lived the principle. Once you see what she was describing, you begin to see it in everything she built. And that realization is worth more to your content strategy than almost anything else I’m going to tell you.
“I Just Don’t See That Kind of Return”
The principle is clear enough in theory. Living it is a different conversation.
I was on a call last month with an executive coach I’m working with. Smart guy, deep expertise, and exceptional with clients. He told me that other than the occasional social post, he’d basically stopped writing.
He’d just read my recent article about Paul McCartney. “Pop songwriters have it easy,” he began. “They land one big hit and the royalties just keep coming in for years. I spend hours on an article, it gets a little traffic, and then it disappears. I just don’t see that kind of return.”
I hear some version of this more often than you might expect, and the frustration is real. You put real time and care into a piece, it goes out, maybe a handful of people read it, and then it seems to vanish. It can feel like the effort isn’t compounding.
What’s usually missing is a clearer picture of how the return actually works.
The songwriter didn’t get paid for one song in isolation. That hit came out of a much larger body of work – hundreds or thousands of other songs that never became famous. The obscure ones weren’t wasted. They were the fertile soil the hits grew out of. The royalties came from the catalog, not the single.
You’re not missing some secret better return on each article. You’re looking at the wrong unit of measurement. The unit isn’t the article. It’s the total surface area – the growing body of evidence that you are the person who has been thinking carefully about your readers’ problems for a long time. That is what builds and compounds.
The 80/20 of Your Luck Surface Area
Look at Dolly’s catalog, for example. Of the 3,000 songs she’s written, she recorded 450 of them, and of those, most of us only know the enduring pop classics like 9 to 5 and I Will Always Love You, or her impressive string of 25 #1 country hits like Jolene.
Most of Dolly’s songs represent her 80%, many of them obscure album tracks that only her most diehard fans know. And for each of those songs, there are people around the world who proclaim that obscure track their favorite Dolly song.
The hit songs are her “20%,” and they continue to sell the most copies, year after year.
When I look at the engagement data for nearly any client who’s been writing consistently for a few years, the same pattern shows up.
The top 20% of their articles generate the vast majority of their attention—month after month, year after year. Some of those pieces are ones the writer was especially proud of. Others are articles they nearly didn’t publish.
The remaining 80% each draw a modest number of readers. Taken one at a time, none of them look impressive. But multiply that modest attention across dozens or even hundreds of articles and the picture changes. Those under-the-radar pieces are doing real work: expanding on your expertise topics, strengthening the overall body of work, and creating more places for the right reader to land. They’re also the soil the eventual stronger pieces grow out of.
Each one is also adding another point on the map where the right person can find you, another signal that you are a consistent, serious source of thinking on these problems. Keep writing enough of them that the surface area works in your favor.
The Advantage You Have
In one significant way, you have it easier than Dolly ever did. Her songs had to find people through radio play, chance encounters, and the unpredictable machinery of the music industry. For much of her career, discovery was largely out of her hands.
Written expertise doesn’t work that way – and never has.
Think about how you find music versus how you find answers to specific problems. When you want a particular mood – something mellow, maybe with a vibraphone – there’s no reliable way to describe it precisely enough to find the exact song you need. Music discovery is still mostly fuzzy. You browse, stumble, get lucky.
But when someone types a specific problem into a search bar or an AI tool – “natural ways to ease lower back pain after sitting all day,” “what to do when a high performer starts coasting” – something different happens. They’re being precise about what they need. This isn’t browsing for a mood. It’s a search for the person who has worked with that exact problem in the real world — someone who has seen the patterns, the exceptions, and the messy human details that don’t show up in a summary.
Those questions still exist in enormous volume. And the surfaces have shifted in your favor. Classic search still works. AI tools increasingly surface authoritative, consistent expertise when they synthesize answers – and when they cite sources, they favor practitioners with a substantial body of writing over those with a thin presence. Recommendations, niche communities, email lists: all of them reward depth over time.
Same Questions, More Doorways
All of what we’ve been discussing only matters because the real, underlying human need hasn’t changed. People with real problems keep looking for people who have solved them. What has changed is that the surfaces where they can find you have multiplied – and a growing body of work means more of those surfaces belong to you.
To show up in those moments, you need two things. First, enough evidence that you’re a serious, ongoing source of relevant thinking, not someone who published a handful of posts and then lost interest. Second, enough articles across the topics that matter so your strongest work has room to surface.
Both requirements point to the same practice: writing consistently over time. Each new piece adds another point on the map where the right person can find you.
Adding those points consistently is the practice.
I’ve watched people begin to see real traction with a few dozen well-targeted pieces, especially when those pieces are carefully focused on the right audience and the right topics. A stable presence — where the right people keep finding you and returning — can grow from there. It doesn’t always require hundreds of articles.
That Surface Lives on Your Website.
Your website is the one place online you fully own. Social media can’t possibly hold a body of work, as your best thinking gets swept into the feed and disappears within hours. A website is different: it becomes the public record of your expertise, a permanent library that compounds with every article you add.
Yes, search isn’t the engine it once was, and that would be a problem if the website’s job were still “get found by Google.” It isn’t. Your website’s task is to be the place people land once they’ve already found you somewhere else — it remains the place that proves you’ve been thinking about their problem for a long time.
Your website is more a home base — the one coherent, findable place your work can live and grow.
People still arrive, and more of the right people. They come from social posts, from your email list, from conversations, from AI answers that cite you, from someone forwarding a link. When they land, they need a place that shows the depth of your thinking over time. One single strong article can open the door. A growing body of work is what makes them stay, trust you, and eventually reach out.
You’re not writing a large number of articles hoping one of them magically ranks forever. Instead, you’re building the surface area and the evidence that you are the person who has been thinking carefully about your reader’s problems for a long time.
What it Looks Like When it Works
When the surface area starts working, it rarely looks dramatic at first.
A handful of pieces begin to do consistent work. Someone reads one article, then another. They subscribe. They forward a link to a colleague. Months later they reply to an email or fill out a contact form because the body of work has already done the heavy lifting of building trust.
The stronger articles keep attracting the right people. The rest of your library gives those people somewhere deeper to go. Over time, your website stops feeling like a collection of posts and starts feeling like evidence: this person has been thinking carefully about these problems for a long time.
That is luck surface area doing its work. Not a fleeting viral moment, but something much more durable. A presence that compounds in the background while you keep doing what you do.
Just Write the Next One
Dolly Parton did not sit down one day and decide to write three thousand songs. She sat down and wrote one song, and then another. The catalog accumulated because she kept showing up.
Those I’ve watched build genuinely successful content platforms have one thing in common: they write because they have something to say. They feel an urgency to share what they know – the discoveries, the fascinations, the things others keep asking them about. The consistency follows naturally from that.
If you share that urgency, your body of work is already waiting. It grows one piece at a time, quietly expanding the surface area where the right person can eventually find you. You don’t need a perfect strategy before you start. You don’t need to know which piece will open the right door. Dolly didn’t know either.
You just need the next piece.
Write it. Then write the one after that. That is how your own serendipity surface expands.
Originally published April, 2020 – Updated August 26, 2026
I don’t just write about Dolly Parton, the writer. I’m a fan.
Her trio of superb bluegrass albums opened a door for me into the music and its culture, and Dolly was smart about it: On each record she slipped in one bluegrass-infused pop-rock cover to draw in unsuspecting fans like me. It worked: An addictive cover of Billy Joel’s Travelin’ Prayer on the first album, “The Grass is Blue;” her outstanding version of Collective Soul’s Shine on the second, “Little Sparrow;” and the biggest surprise, she makes Stairway to Heaven her own, which closes the third album, “Halos and Horns.”
Rest in Peace, Dolly.
